What if Trump is re-elected?

March 4, 2024

A possible re-election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 could entail a significant upheaval for the world trading order, if he fulfills his announcements to raise tariffs, mainly in order to reduce the US trade deficit. Such steps would not only have a negative effect on the world economy – and this at a time of significant global strains. They would also deal a further blow to the WTO, as the envisaged tariff increases would clearly violate international trade rules. Transatlantic relations with the EU are also likely to suffer.First, old trade disputes that were largely settled with the Biden administration could flare up again, e.g. regarding steel and aluminum. Second, Trump could abolish co-operative measures by the Biden administration that mitigate the protectionist elements of the US Inflation Reduction Act for EU exporters. Third, the future of the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) might be jeopardised