China’s structural slowdown augurs more global trade wars

January 30, 2024

The conventional drivers of China’s meteoric economic rise are entering an ineluctable decline. As Chinese capital has become less productive, the economy’s structural problems are bound to further inflame global trade tensions.

Since former Premier Wen Jiabao’s 2007 proclamation that China’s economic growth was "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable", China has talked a big game about rebalancing the economy towards domestic consumption. President Xi Jinping’s "common prosperity" campaign and deleveraging of the property sector sparked hopes that Beijing was serious about doing so.