Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States. 2020 Final Report

September 16, 2020

This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD, for the project TAXUD/2019/AO-14, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, and is a follow-up to the seven reports published between 2013 and 2019.


This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. We also include the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, we operationalize the econometric analysis to forecast the potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 and 2021.