March 31, 2019
The objective of this study is to analyse six assumptions that are frequently made in public discussions of the impact of Brexit on the Polish economy:
- The UK is currently Poland’s second biggest export market, and it is far less important than Germany. Therefore, the Polish economy would not be significantly affected by a ‘no deal’ scenario in Brexit negotiations.
- Polish manufacturing would benefit from a ‘no deal’ scenario because some manufacturing plants in the UK would relocate to the EU, and they are likely to choose Poland as a new location because of Poland’s competitive advantage (cheaper, highly educated workforce) over other EU countries.
- Polish manufacturers would not be affected by a ‘no deal’ scenario because WTO tariffs are not that high, and, anyway, Polish goods are price competitive, so they will be in a better position to compete than goods from the other EU countries.
- In the event of a ‘no deal’ scenario, Polish food and agriculture (and other) manufacturers would find new markets for their products, just as they did when trade restrictions with Russia were imposed.
- If a trade deal did not include services, then Poland would benefit because more business service centres would be located in Poland.
- The Polish economy does not significantly benefit from links to the financial services industry in the UK, neither in terms of stability nor investment.